Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) highlight the potential of this technology to affect productivity, growth, inequality, market power, innovation, and employment. This volume seeks to set the agenda for economic research on the impact of AI. It covers four broad themes: AI as a general purpose technology; the relationships between AI, growth, jobs, and inequality; regulatory responses to changes brought on by AI; and the effects of AI on the way economic research is conducted. It explores the economic influence of machine learning, the branch of computational statistics that has driven much of the recent excitement around AI, as well as the economic impact of robotics and automation and the potential economic consequences of a still-hypothetical artificial general intelligence. The volume provides frameworks for understanding the economic impact of AI and identifies a number of open research questions.
Contributors: Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Philippe Aghion, Collège de France Ajay Agrawal, University of Toronto Susan Athey, Stanford University James Bessen, Boston University School of Law Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan School of Management Colin F. Camerer, California Institute of Technology Judith Chevalier, Yale School of Management Iain M. Cockburn, Boston University Tyler Cowen, George Mason University Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School Patrick Francois, University of British Columbia Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto Joshua Gans, University of Toronto Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Rebecca Henderson, Harvard Business School Ginger Zhe Jin, University of Maryland Benjamin F. Jones, Northwestern University Charles I. Jones, Stanford University Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University Anton Korinek, Johns Hopkins University Mara Lederman, University of Toronto Hong Luo, Harvard Business School John McHale, National University of Ireland Paul R. Milgrom, Stanford University Matthew Mitchell, University of Toronto Alexander Oettl, Georgia Institute of Technology Andrea Prat, Columbia Business School Manav Raj, New York University Pascual Restrepo, Boston University Daniel Rock, MIT Sloan School of Management Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University Robert Seamans, New York University Scott Stern, MIT Sloan School of Management Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Joseph E. Stiglitz. Columbia University Chad Syverson, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Matt Taddy, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Steven Tadelis, University of California, Berkeley Manuel Trajtenberg, Tel Aviv University Daniel Trefler, University of Toronto Catherine Tucker, MIT Sloan School of Management Hal Varian, University of California, Berkeley
Review
"The book is a timely contribution to our understanding of how artificial intelligence (AI) as a technology may evolve and how it may exert impacts on the economy and the ways we live, work and think. It convenes 30 leading economists and asks them to foresee how AI will change specific aspects of the economy in which they have expertise, thus scoping out a research agenda for the next 20 years into the economics of AI. This is as if these economists were back to1995 when the internet was about to begin transforming industries and gathered to debate about what would have happened to economic research into that revolution. This approach of amassing forward-looking perspectives of leading economists is unique amongst books on AI and the economy and is therefore highly valuable. Businesses, public policymakers and researchers can all find useful insights from this book." ― Economic Record
"Likely to remain the leading reference in this field for years to come... The book rightly calls itself ‘an agenda’ as the rapid increase in, and development of, AI applications will require constant reassessment of the implications, costs and benefits. The book does set an agenda and across a large range of issues." ― Prometheus
About the Author
Ajay Agrawal is professor of strategic management and the Geoffrey Taber Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the University of Toronto.
Acknowledgments, Introduction Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, I. AI AS A GPT, 1. Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson, Comment: Rebecca Henderson, 2. The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence Matt Taddy, 3. Prediction, Judgment, and Complexity: A Theory of Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, Comment: Andrea Prat, 4. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Innovation: An Exploratory Analysis Iain M. Cockburn, Rebecca Henderson, and Scott Stern, Comment: Matthew Mitchell, 5. Finding Needles in Haystacks: Artificial Intelligence and Recombinant Growth Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, and Alexander Oettl, 6. Artificial Intelligence as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective Manuel Trajtenberg, II. GROWTH, JOBS, AND INEQUALITY, 7. Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning Betsey Stevenson, 8. Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo, 9. Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth Philippe Aghion, Benjamin F. Jones, and Charles I. Jones, Comment: Patrick Francois, 10. Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: The Role of Demand James Bessen, 11. Public Policy in an AI Economy Austan Goolsbee, 12. Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past? Jason Furman, 13. R&D, Structural Transformation, and the Distribution of Income Jeffrey D. Sachs, 14. Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment Anton Korinek and Joseph E. Stiglitz, 15. Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence Tyler Cowen, III. MACHINE LEARNING AND REGULATION, 16. Artificial Intelligence, Economics, and Industrial Organization Hal Varian, Comment: Judith Chevalier, 17. Privacy, Algorithms, and Artificial Intelligence Catherine Tucker, 18. Artificial Intelligence and Consumer Privacy Ginger Zhe Jin, 19. Artificial Intelligence and International Trade Avi Goldfarb and Daniel Trefler, 20. Punishing Robots: Issues in the Economics of Tort Liability and Innovation in Artificial Intelligence Alberto Galasso and Hong Luo, IV. MACHINE LEARNING AND ECONOMICS, 21. The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics Susan Athey, Comment: Mara Lederman, 22. Artificial Intelligence, Labor, Productivity, and the Need for Firm-Level Data Manav Raj and Robert Seamans, 23. How Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Can Impact Market Design Paul R. Milgrom and Steven Tadelis, 24. Artificial Intelligence and Behavioral Economics Colin F. Camerer, Comment: Daniel Kahneman, Notes, Contributors, Author Index, Subject Index,
CHAPTER 1
Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox
A Clash of Expectations and Statistics
Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson
The discussion around the recent patterns in aggregate productivity growth highlights a seeming contradiction. On the one hand, there are astonishing examples of potentially transformative new technologies that could greatly increase productivity and economic welfare (see Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014). There are some early concrete signs of these technologies' promise, recent leaps in artificial intelligence (AI) performance being the most prominent example. However, at the same time, measured productivity growth over the past decade has slowed significantly. This deceleration is large, cutting productivity growth by half or more in the decade preceding the slowdown. It is also widespread, having occurred throughout the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and, more recently, among many large emerging economies as well (Syverson 2017).
We thus appear to be facing a redux of the Solow (1987) paradox: we see transformative new technologies everywhere but in the productivity statistics.
In this chapter, we review the evidence and explanations for the modern productivity paradox and propose a resolution. Namely, there is no inherent inconsistency between forward-looking technological optimism and backward-looking disappointment. Both can simultaneously exist. Indeed, there are good conceptual reasons to expect them to simultaneously exist when the economy undergoes the kind of restructuring associated with transformative technologies. In essence, the forecasters of future company wealth and the measurers of historical economic performance show the greatest disagreement during times of technological change. In this chapter, we argue and present some evidence that the economy is in such a period now.
1.1 Sources of Technological Optimism
Paul Polman, Unilever's CEO, recently claimed that "The speed of innovation has never been faster." Similarly, Bill Gates, Microsoft's cofounder, observes that "Innovation is moving at a scarily fast pace." Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures sees "the beginnings of ... [a] rapid acceleration in the next 10, 15, 20 years." Eric Schmidt of Alphabet Inc., believes "we're entering ... the age of abundance [and] during the age of abundance, we're going to see a new age ... the age of intelligence." Assertions like these are especially common among technology leaders and venture capitalists.
In part, these assertions reflect the continuing progress of information technology (IT) in many areas, from core technology advances like further doublings of basic computer power (but from ever larger bases) to successful investment in the essential complementary innovations like cloud infrastructure and new service-based business models. But the bigger source of optimism is the wave of recent improvements in AI, especially machine learning (ML). Machine learning represents a fundamental change from the first wave of computerization. Historically, most computer programs were created by meticulously codifying human knowledge, mapping inputs to outputs as prescribed by the programmers. In contrast, machine-learning systems use categories of general algorithms (e.g., neural networks) to figure out relevant mappings on their own, typically by being fed very large sample data sets. By using these machine-learning methods that leverage the growth in total data and data-processing resources, machines have made impressive gains in perception and cognition, two essential skills for most types of human work. For instance, error rates in labeling the content of photos on ImageNet, a data set of over ten million images, have fallen from over 30 percent in 2010 to less than 5 percent in 2016, and most recently as low as 2.2 percent with SE-ResNet152 in the ILSVRC2017 competition (see figure 1.1). Error rates in voice recognition on the Switchboard speech recording corpus, often used to measure progress in speech recognition, have decreased to 5.5 percent from 8.5 percent over the past year (Saon et al. 2017). The 5 percent threshold is important because that is roughly the performance of humans on each of these tasks on the same test data.
Although not at the level of professional human performance yet, Facebook's AI research team recently improved upon the best machine language translation algorithms available using convolutional neural net sequence prediction techniques (Gehring et al. 2017). Deep learning techniques have also been combined with reinforcement learning, a powerful set of techniques used to generate control and action systems whereby autonomous agents are trained to take actions given an environment state to maximize future rewards. Though nascent, advances in this field are impressive. In addition to its victories in the game of Go, Google DeepMind has achieved superhuman performance in many Atari games (Fortunato et al. 2017).
These are notable technological milestones. But they can also change the economic landscape, creating new opportunities for business value creation and cost reduction. For example, a system using deep neural networks was tested against twenty-one board-certified dermatologists and matched their performance in diagnosing skin cancer (Esteva et al. 2017). Facebook uses neural networks for over 4.5 billion translations each day.
An increasing number of companies have responded to these opportunities. Google now describes its focus as "AI first," while Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella says AI is the "ultimate breakthrough" in technology. Their optimism about AI is not just cheap talk. They are making heavy investments in AI, as are Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. As of September 2017, these companies comprise the five most valuable companies in the world. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index more than doubled between 2012 and 2017. According to CBInsights, global investment in private companies focused on AI has grown even faster, increasing from $589 million in 2012 to over $5 billion in 2016.
1.2 The Disappointing Recent Reality
Although the technologies discussed above hold great potential, there is little sign that they have yet affected aggregate productivity statistics. Labor productivity growth rates in a broad swath of developed economies fell in the middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century and have stayed low since then. For example, aggregate labor productivity growth in the United States averaged only 1.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2016, less than half of the 2.8 percent annual growth rate sustained from 1995 to 2004. Fully twenty-eight of the twenty-nine other countries for which the OECD has compiled productivity growth data saw similar decelerations. The unweighted average annual labor productivity growth rate across these countries was 2.3 percent from 1995 to 2004, but only 1.1 percent from 2005 to 2015. What's more, real median income has stagnated since the late 1990s and noneconomic measures of well-being, like life expectancy, have fallen for some groups (Case and Deaton 2017).
Figure 1.2 replicates the Conference Board's analysis of its country-level Total Economy Database (Conference Board 2016). It plots highly smoothed annual productivity growth rate series for the United States, other mature economies (which combined match much of the OECD sample cited above), emerging and developing economies, and the world overall. The aforementioned slowdowns in the United States and other mature economies are clear in the figure. The figure also reveals that the productivity growth acceleration in emerging and developing economies during the first decade of the twenty-first century ended around the time of the Great Recession, causing a recent decline in productivity growth rates in these countries too.
These slowdowns do not appear to simply reflect the effects of the Great Recession. In the OECD data, twenty-eight of the thirty countries still exhibit productivity decelerations if 2008–2009 growth rates are excluded from the totals. Cette, Fernald, and Mojon (2016), using other data, also find substantial evidence that the slowdowns began before the Great Recession.
Both capital deepening and total factor productivity (TFP) growth lead to labor productivity growth, and both seem to be playing a role in the slowdown (Fernald 2014; OECD 2015). Disappointing technological progress can be tied to each of these components. Total factor productivity directly reflects such progress. Capital deepening is indirectly influenced by technological change because firms' investment decisions respond to improvements in capital's current or expected marginal product.
These facts have been read by some as reasons for pessimism about the ability of new technologies like AI to greatly affect productivity and income. Gordon (2014, 2015) argues that productivity growth has been in long-run decline, with the IT-driven acceleration of 1995 to 2004 being a one-off aberration. While not claiming technological progress will be nil in the coming decades, Gordon essentially argues that we have been experiencing the new, low-growth normal and should expect to continue to do so going forward. Cowen (2011) similarly offers multiple reasons why innovation may be slow, at least for the foreseeable future. Bloom et al. (2017) document that in many fields of technological progress research productivity has been falling, while Nordhaus (2015) finds that the hypothesis of an acceleration of technology-driven growth fails a variety of tests.
This pessimistic view of future technological progress has entered into long-range policy planning. The Congressional Budget Office, for instance, reduced its ten-year forecast for average US annual labor productivity growth from 1.8 percent in 2016 (CBO 2016) to 1.5 percent in 2017 (CBO 2017). Although perhaps modest on its surface, that drop implies US gross domestic product (GDP) will be considerably smaller ten years from now than it would in the more optimistic scenario — a difference equivalent to almost $600 billion in 2017.
1.3 Potential Explanations for the Paradox
There are four principal candidate explanations for the current confluence of technological optimism and poor productivity performance: (a) false hopes, (b) mismeasurement, (c) concentrated distribution and rent dissipation, and (d) implementation and restructuring lags.
1.3.1 False Hopes
The simplest possibility is that the optimism about the potential technologies is misplaced and unfounded. Perhaps these technologies won't be as transformative as many expect, and although they might have modest and noteworthy effects on specific sectors, their aggregate impact might be small. In this case, the paradox will be resolved in the future because realized productivity growth never escapes its current doldrums, which will force the optimists to mark their beliefs to market.
History and some current examples offer a quantum of credence to this possibility. Certainly one can point to many prior exciting technologies that did not live up to initially optimistic expectations. Nuclear power never became too cheap to meter, and fusion energy has been twenty years away for sixty years. Mars may still beckon, but it has been more than forty years since Eugene Cernan was the last person to walk on the moon. Flying cars never got off the ground, and passenger jets no longer fly at supersonic speeds. Even AI, perhaps the most promising technology of our era, is well behind Marvin Minsky's 1967 prediction that "Within a generation the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will be substantially solved" (Minsky 1967, 2).
On the other hand, there remains a compelling case for optimism. As we outline below, it is not difficult to construct back-of-the-envelope scenarios in which even a modest number of currently existing technologies could combine to substantially raise productivity growth and societal welfare. Indeed, knowledgeable investors and researchers are betting their money and time on exactly such outcomes. Thus, while we recognize the potential for overoptimism — and the experience with early predictions for AI makes an especially relevant reminder for us to be somewhat circumspect in this chapter — we judge that it would be highly preliminary to dismiss optimism at this point.
1.3.2 Mismeasurement
Another potential explanation for the paradox is mismeasurement of output and productivity. In this case, it is the pessimistic reading of the empirical past, not the optimism about the future, that is mistaken. Indeed, this explanation implies that the productivity benefits of the new wave of technologies are already being enjoyed, but have yet to be accurately measured. Under this explanation, the slowdown of the past decade is illusory. This "mismeasurement hypothesis" has been put forth in several works (e.g., Mokyr 2014; Alloway 2015; Feldstein 2015; Hatzius and Dawsey 2015; Smith 2015).
There is a prima facie case for the mismeasurement hypothesis. Many new technologies, like smartphones, online social networks, and downloadable media involve little monetary cost, yet consumers spend large amounts of time with these technologies. Thus, the technologies might deliver substantial utility even if they account for a small share of GDP due to their low relative price. Guvenen et al. (2017) also show how growing off shore profit shifting can be another source of mismeasurement.
However, a set of recent studies provide good reason to think that mismeasurement is not the entire, or even a substantial, explanation for the slowdown. Cardarelli and Lusinyan (2015), Byrne, Fernald, and Reinsdorf (2016), Nakamura and Soloveichik (2015), and Syverson (2017), each using different methodologies and data, present evidence that mismeasurement is not the primary explanation for the productivity slowdown. After all, while there is convincing evidence that many of the benefits of today's technologies are not reflected in GDP and therefore productivity statistics, the same was undoubtedly true in earlier eras as well.
1.3.3 Concentrated Distribution and Rent Dissipation
A third possibility is that the gains of the new technologies are already attainable, but that through a combination of concentrated distribution of those gains and dissipative efforts to attain or preserve them (assuming the technologies are at least partially rivalrous), their effect on average productivity growth is modest overall, and is virtually nil for the median worker. For instance, two of the most profitable uses of AI to date have been for targeting and pricing online ads, and for automated trading of financial instruments, both applications with many zero-sum aspects.
One version of this story asserts that the benefits of the new technologies are being enjoyed by a relatively small fraction of the economy, but the technologies' narrowly scoped and rivalrous nature creates wasteful "gold rush"-type activities. Both those seeking to be one of the few beneficiaries, as well as those who have attained some gains and seek to block access to others, engage in these dissipative efforts, destroying many of the benefits of the new technologies.
Recent research offers some indirect support for elements of this story. Productivity differences between frontier firms and average firms in the same industry have been increasing in recent years (Andrews, Criscuolo, and Gal 2016; Furman and Orszag 2015). Differences in profit margins between the top and bottom performers in most industries have also grown (McAfee and Brynjolfsson 2008). A smaller number of superstar firms are gaining market share (Autor et al. 2017; Brynjolfsson et al. 2008), while workers' earnings are increasingly tied to firm-level productivity differences (Song et al. 2015). There are concerns that industry concentration is leading to substantial aggregate welfare losses due to the distortions of market power (e.g., De Loecker and Eeckhout 2017; Gutiérrez and Philippon 2017). Furthermore, growing inequality can lead to stagnating median incomes and associated socioeconomic costs, even when total income continues to grow.
Although this evidence is important, it is not dispositive. The aggregate effects of industry concentration are still under debate, and the mere fact that a technology's gains are not evenly distributed is no guarantee that resources will be dissipated in trying to capture them — especially that there would be enough waste to erase noticeable aggregate benefits.
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) highlight the potential of this technology to affect productivity, growth, inequality, market power, innovation, and employment. This volume seeks to set the agenda for economic research on the impact of AI. It covers four broad themes: AI as a general purpose technology; the relationships between AI, growth, jobs, and inequality; regulatory responses to changes brought on by AI; and the effects of AI on the way economic research is conducted. It explores the economic influence of machine learning, the branch of computational statistics that has driven much of the recent excitement around AI, as well as the economic impact of robotics and automation and the potential economic consequences of a still-hypothetical artificial general intelligence. The volume provides frameworks for understanding the economic impact of AI and identifies a number of open research questions.
Contributors:
Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Philippe Aghion, Collège de France
Ajay Agrawal, University of Toronto
Susan Athey, Stanford University
James Bessen, Boston University School of Law
Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT Sloan School of Management
Colin F. Camerer, California Institute of Technology
Judith Chevalier, Yale School of Management
Iain M. Cockburn, Boston University
Tyler Cowen, George Mason University
Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School
Patrick Francois, University of British Columbia
Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto
Joshua Gans, University of Toronto
Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto
Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Rebecca Henderson, Harvard Business School
Ginger Zhe Jin, University of Maryland
Benjamin F. Jones, Northwestern University
Charles I. Jones, Stanford University
Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University
Anton Korinek, Johns Hopkins University
Mara Lederman, University of Toronto
Hong Luo, Harvard Business School
John McHale, National University of Ireland
Paul R. Milgrom, Stanford University
Matthew Mitchell, University of Toronto
Alexander Oettl, Georgia Institute of Technology
Andrea Prat, Columbia Business School
Manav Raj, New York University
Pascual Restrepo, Boston University
Daniel Rock, MIT Sloan School of Management
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University
Robert Seamans, New York University
Scott Stern, MIT Sloan School of Management
Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan
Joseph E. Stiglitz. Columbia University
Chad Syverson, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Matt Taddy, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Steven Tadelis, University of California, Berkeley
Manuel Trajtenberg, Tel Aviv University
Daniel Trefler, University of Toronto
Catherine Tucker, MIT Sloan School of Management
Hal Varian, University of California, Berkeley
Review
"The book is a timely contribution to our understanding of how artificial intelligence (AI) as a technology may evolve and how it may exert impacts on the economy and the ways we live, work and think. It convenes 30 leading economists and asks them to foresee how AI will change specific aspects of the economy in which they have expertise, thus scoping out a research agenda for the next 20 years into the economics of AI. This is as if these economists were back to1995 when the internet was about to begin transforming industries and gathered to debate about what would have happened to economic research into that revolution. This approach of amassing forward-looking perspectives of leading economists is unique amongst books on AI and the economy and is therefore highly valuable. Businesses, public policymakers and researchers can all find useful insights from this book." ― Economic Record
"Likely to remain the leading reference in this field for years to come... The book rightly calls itself ‘an agenda’ as the rapid increase in, and development of, AI applications will require constant reassessment of the implications, costs and benefits. The book does set an agenda and across a large range of issues." ― Prometheus
About the Author
Ajay Agrawal is professor of strategic management and the Geoffrey Taber Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation at the University of Toronto.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
The Economics of Artificial Intelligence
An Agenda
By Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
The University of Chicago Press
Copyright © 2019 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
All rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-226-61333-8
Contents
Acknowledgments,
Introduction Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb,
I. AI AS A GPT,
1. Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson,
Comment: Rebecca Henderson,
2. The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence Matt Taddy,
3. Prediction, Judgment, and Complexity: A Theory of Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb,
Comment: Andrea Prat,
4. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Innovation: An Exploratory Analysis Iain M. Cockburn, Rebecca Henderson, and Scott Stern,
Comment: Matthew Mitchell,
5. Finding Needles in Haystacks: Artificial Intelligence and Recombinant Growth Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, and Alexander Oettl,
6. Artificial Intelligence as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective Manuel Trajtenberg,
II. GROWTH, JOBS, AND INEQUALITY,
7. Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning Betsey Stevenson,
8. Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo,
9. Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth Philippe Aghion, Benjamin F. Jones, and Charles I. Jones,
Comment: Patrick Francois,
10. Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: The Role of Demand James Bessen,
11. Public Policy in an AI Economy Austan Goolsbee,
12. Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past? Jason Furman,
13. R&D, Structural Transformation, and the Distribution of Income Jeffrey D. Sachs,
14. Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment Anton Korinek and Joseph E. Stiglitz,
15. Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence Tyler Cowen,
III. MACHINE LEARNING AND REGULATION,
16. Artificial Intelligence, Economics, and Industrial Organization Hal Varian,
Comment: Judith Chevalier,
17. Privacy, Algorithms, and Artificial Intelligence Catherine Tucker,
18. Artificial Intelligence and Consumer Privacy Ginger Zhe Jin,
19. Artificial Intelligence and International Trade Avi Goldfarb and Daniel Trefler,
20. Punishing Robots: Issues in the Economics of Tort Liability and Innovation in Artificial Intelligence Alberto Galasso and Hong Luo,
IV. MACHINE LEARNING AND ECONOMICS,
21. The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics Susan Athey,
Comment: Mara Lederman,
22. Artificial Intelligence, Labor, Productivity, and the Need for Firm-Level Data Manav Raj and Robert Seamans,
23. How Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Can Impact Market Design Paul R. Milgrom and Steven Tadelis,
24. Artificial Intelligence and Behavioral Economics Colin F. Camerer,
Comment: Daniel Kahneman,
Notes,
Contributors,
Author Index,
Subject Index,
CHAPTER 1
Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox
A Clash of Expectations and Statistics
Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson
The discussion around the recent patterns in aggregate productivity growth highlights a seeming contradiction. On the one hand, there are astonishing examples of potentially transformative new technologies that could greatly increase productivity and economic welfare (see Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014). There are some early concrete signs of these technologies' promise, recent leaps in artificial intelligence (AI) performance being the most prominent example. However, at the same time, measured productivity growth over the past decade has slowed significantly. This deceleration is large, cutting productivity growth by half or more in the decade preceding the slowdown. It is also widespread, having occurred throughout the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and, more recently, among many large emerging economies as well (Syverson 2017).
We thus appear to be facing a redux of the Solow (1987) paradox: we see transformative new technologies everywhere but in the productivity statistics.
In this chapter, we review the evidence and explanations for the modern productivity paradox and propose a resolution. Namely, there is no inherent inconsistency between forward-looking technological optimism and backward-looking disappointment. Both can simultaneously exist. Indeed, there are good conceptual reasons to expect them to simultaneously exist when the economy undergoes the kind of restructuring associated with transformative technologies. In essence, the forecasters of future company wealth and the measurers of historical economic performance show the greatest disagreement during times of technological change. In this chapter, we argue and present some evidence that the economy is in such a period now.
1.1 Sources of Technological Optimism
Paul Polman, Unilever's CEO, recently claimed that "The speed of innovation has never been faster." Similarly, Bill Gates, Microsoft's cofounder, observes that "Innovation is moving at a scarily fast pace." Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures sees "the beginnings of ... [a] rapid acceleration in the next 10, 15, 20 years." Eric Schmidt of Alphabet Inc., believes "we're entering ... the age of abundance [and] during the age of abundance, we're going to see a new age ... the age of intelligence." Assertions like these are especially common among technology leaders and venture capitalists.
In part, these assertions reflect the continuing progress of information technology (IT) in many areas, from core technology advances like further doublings of basic computer power (but from ever larger bases) to successful investment in the essential complementary innovations like cloud infrastructure and new service-based business models. But the bigger source of optimism is the wave of recent improvements in AI, especially machine learning (ML). Machine learning represents a fundamental change from the first wave of computerization. Historically, most computer programs were created by meticulously codifying human knowledge, mapping inputs to outputs as prescribed by the programmers. In contrast, machine-learning systems use categories of general algorithms (e.g., neural networks) to figure out relevant mappings on their own, typically by being fed very large sample data sets. By using these machine-learning methods that leverage the growth in total data and data-processing resources, machines have made impressive gains in perception and cognition, two essential skills for most types of human work. For instance, error rates in labeling the content of photos on ImageNet, a data set of over ten million images, have fallen from over 30 percent in 2010 to less than 5 percent in 2016, and most recently as low as 2.2 percent with SE-ResNet152 in the ILSVRC2017 competition (see figure 1.1). Error rates in voice recognition on the Switchboard speech recording corpus, often used to measure progress in speech recognition, have decreased to 5.5 percent from 8.5 percent over the past year (Saon et al. 2017). The 5 percent threshold is important because that is roughly the performance of humans on each of these tasks on the same test data.
Although not at the level of professional human performance yet, Facebook's AI research team recently improved upon the best machine language translation algorithms available using convolutional neural net sequence prediction techniques (Gehring et al. 2017). Deep learning techniques have also been combined with reinforcement learning, a powerful set of techniques used to generate control and action systems whereby autonomous agents are trained to take actions given an environment state to maximize future rewards. Though nascent, advances in this field are impressive. In addition to its victories in the game of Go, Google DeepMind has achieved superhuman performance in many Atari games (Fortunato et al. 2017).
These are notable technological milestones. But they can also change the economic landscape, creating new opportunities for business value creation and cost reduction. For example, a system using deep neural networks was tested against twenty-one board-certified dermatologists and matched their performance in diagnosing skin cancer (Esteva et al. 2017). Facebook uses neural networks for over 4.5 billion translations each day.
An increasing number of companies have responded to these opportunities. Google now describes its focus as "AI first," while Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella says AI is the "ultimate breakthrough" in technology. Their optimism about AI is not just cheap talk. They are making heavy investments in AI, as are Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. As of September 2017, these companies comprise the five most valuable companies in the world. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index more than doubled between 2012 and 2017. According to CBInsights, global investment in private companies focused on AI has grown even faster, increasing from $589 million in 2012 to over $5 billion in 2016.
1.2 The Disappointing Recent Reality
Although the technologies discussed above hold great potential, there is little sign that they have yet affected aggregate productivity statistics. Labor productivity growth rates in a broad swath of developed economies fell in the middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century and have stayed low since then. For example, aggregate labor productivity growth in the United States averaged only 1.3 percent per year from 2005 to 2016, less than half of the 2.8 percent annual growth rate sustained from 1995 to 2004. Fully twenty-eight of the twenty-nine other countries for which the OECD has compiled productivity growth data saw similar decelerations. The unweighted average annual labor productivity growth rate across these countries was 2.3 percent from 1995 to 2004, but only 1.1 percent from 2005 to 2015. What's more, real median income has stagnated since the late 1990s and noneconomic measures of well-being, like life expectancy, have fallen for some groups (Case and Deaton 2017).
Figure 1.2 replicates the Conference Board's analysis of its country-level Total Economy Database (Conference Board 2016). It plots highly smoothed annual productivity growth rate series for the United States, other mature economies (which combined match much of the OECD sample cited above), emerging and developing economies, and the world overall. The aforementioned slowdowns in the United States and other mature economies are clear in the figure. The figure also reveals that the productivity growth acceleration in emerging and developing economies during the first decade of the twenty-first century ended around the time of the Great Recession, causing a recent decline in productivity growth rates in these countries too.
These slowdowns do not appear to simply reflect the effects of the Great Recession. In the OECD data, twenty-eight of the thirty countries still exhibit productivity decelerations if 2008–2009 growth rates are excluded from the totals. Cette, Fernald, and Mojon (2016), using other data, also find substantial evidence that the slowdowns began before the Great Recession.
Both capital deepening and total factor productivity (TFP) growth lead to labor productivity growth, and both seem to be playing a role in the slowdown (Fernald 2014; OECD 2015). Disappointing technological progress can be tied to each of these components. Total factor productivity directly reflects such progress. Capital deepening is indirectly influenced by technological change because firms' investment decisions respond to improvements in capital's current or expected marginal product.
These facts have been read by some as reasons for pessimism about the ability of new technologies like AI to greatly affect productivity and income. Gordon (2014, 2015) argues that productivity growth has been in long-run decline, with the IT-driven acceleration of 1995 to 2004 being a one-off aberration. While not claiming technological progress will be nil in the coming decades, Gordon essentially argues that we have been experiencing the new, low-growth normal and should expect to continue to do so going forward. Cowen (2011) similarly offers multiple reasons why innovation may be slow, at least for the foreseeable future. Bloom et al. (2017) document that in many fields of technological progress research productivity has been falling, while Nordhaus (2015) finds that the hypothesis of an acceleration of technology-driven growth fails a variety of tests.
This pessimistic view of future technological progress has entered into long-range policy planning. The Congressional Budget Office, for instance, reduced its ten-year forecast for average US annual labor productivity growth from 1.8 percent in 2016 (CBO 2016) to 1.5 percent in 2017 (CBO 2017). Although perhaps modest on its surface, that drop implies US gross domestic product (GDP) will be considerably smaller ten years from now than it would in the more optimistic scenario — a difference equivalent to almost $600 billion in 2017.
1.3 Potential Explanations for the Paradox
There are four principal candidate explanations for the current confluence of technological optimism and poor productivity performance: (a) false hopes, (b) mismeasurement, (c) concentrated distribution and rent dissipation, and (d) implementation and restructuring lags.
1.3.1 False Hopes
The simplest possibility is that the optimism about the potential technologies is misplaced and unfounded. Perhaps these technologies won't be as transformative as many expect, and although they might have modest and noteworthy effects on specific sectors, their aggregate impact might be small. In this case, the paradox will be resolved in the future because realized productivity growth never escapes its current doldrums, which will force the optimists to mark their beliefs to market.
History and some current examples offer a quantum of credence to this possibility. Certainly one can point to many prior exciting technologies that did not live up to initially optimistic expectations. Nuclear power never became too cheap to meter, and fusion energy has been twenty years away for sixty years. Mars may still beckon, but it has been more than forty years since Eugene Cernan was the last person to walk on the moon. Flying cars never got off the ground, and passenger jets no longer fly at supersonic speeds. Even AI, perhaps the most promising technology of our era, is well behind Marvin Minsky's 1967 prediction that "Within a generation the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will be substantially solved" (Minsky 1967, 2).
On the other hand, there remains a compelling case for optimism. As we outline below, it is not difficult to construct back-of-the-envelope scenarios in which even a modest number of currently existing technologies could combine to substantially raise productivity growth and societal welfare. Indeed, knowledgeable investors and researchers are betting their money and time on exactly such outcomes. Thus, while we recognize the potential for overoptimism — and the experience with early predictions for AI makes an especially relevant reminder for us to be somewhat circumspect in this chapter — we judge that it would be highly preliminary to dismiss optimism at this point.
1.3.2 Mismeasurement
Another potential explanation for the paradox is mismeasurement of output and productivity. In this case, it is the pessimistic reading of the empirical past, not the optimism about the future, that is mistaken. Indeed, this explanation implies that the productivity benefits of the new wave of technologies are already being enjoyed, but have yet to be accurately measured. Under this explanation, the slowdown of the past decade is illusory. This "mismeasurement hypothesis" has been put forth in several works (e.g., Mokyr 2014; Alloway 2015; Feldstein 2015; Hatzius and Dawsey 2015; Smith 2015).
There is a prima facie case for the mismeasurement hypothesis. Many new technologies, like smartphones, online social networks, and downloadable media involve little monetary cost, yet consumers spend large amounts of time with these technologies. Thus, the technologies might deliver substantial utility even if they account for a small share of GDP due to their low relative price. Guvenen et al. (2017) also show how growing off shore profit shifting can be another source of mismeasurement.
However, a set of recent studies provide good reason to think that mismeasurement is not the entire, or even a substantial, explanation for the slowdown. Cardarelli and Lusinyan (2015), Byrne, Fernald, and Reinsdorf (2016), Nakamura and Soloveichik (2015), and Syverson (2017), each using different methodologies and data, present evidence that mismeasurement is not the primary explanation for the productivity slowdown. After all, while there is convincing evidence that many of the benefits of today's technologies are not reflected in GDP and therefore productivity statistics, the same was undoubtedly true in earlier eras as well.
1.3.3 Concentrated Distribution and Rent Dissipation
A third possibility is that the gains of the new technologies are already attainable, but that through a combination of concentrated distribution of those gains and dissipative efforts to attain or preserve them (assuming the technologies are at least partially rivalrous), their effect on average productivity growth is modest overall, and is virtually nil for the median worker. For instance, two of the most profitable uses of AI to date have been for targeting and pricing online ads, and for automated trading of financial instruments, both applications with many zero-sum aspects.
One version of this story asserts that the benefits of the new technologies are being enjoyed by a relatively small fraction of the economy, but the technologies' narrowly scoped and rivalrous nature creates wasteful "gold rush"-type activities. Both those seeking to be one of the few beneficiaries, as well as those who have attained some gains and seek to block access to others, engage in these dissipative efforts, destroying many of the benefits of the new technologies.
Recent research offers some indirect support for elements of this story. Productivity differences between frontier firms and average firms in the same industry have been increasing in recent years (Andrews, Criscuolo, and Gal 2016; Furman and Orszag 2015). Differences in profit margins between the top and bottom performers in most industries have also grown (McAfee and Brynjolfsson 2008). A smaller number of superstar firms are gaining market share (Autor et al. 2017; Brynjolfsson et al. 2008), while workers' earnings are increasingly tied to firm-level productivity differences (Song et al. 2015). There are concerns that industry concentration is leading to substantial aggregate welfare losses due to the distortions of market power (e.g., De Loecker and Eeckhout 2017; Gutiérrez and Philippon 2017). Furthermore, growing inequality can lead to stagnating median incomes and associated socioeconomic costs, even when total income continues to grow.
Although this evidence is important, it is not dispositive. The aggregate effects of industry concentration are still under debate, and the mere fact that a technology's gains are not evenly distributed is no guarantee that resources will be dissipated in trying to capture them — especially that there would be enough waste to erase noticeable aggregate benefits.
(Continues...) Excerpted from The Economics of Artificial Intelligence by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb. Copyright © 2019 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.. Excerpted by permission of The University of Chicago Press.
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